DAYTON, OH (WDTN) — Having a white Christmas is defined as having one or more inches of snow on the ground. Since 1981, Dayton has seen a white Christmas about 24% of the time.
With La Nina in control, your hopes may be up this year, but history is not on our side.
There has only been one white Christmas in the last 10 years, coming back in 2017 with 2 inches of snow on the ground, but with two weeks left until Christmas, what do the models tell us?
Ensemble models have been pretty consistent, depicting a surge of cold Canadian air settling into much of the United States bringing below average temperatures on the 25th.
When temperatures have been at or below freezing since 1981, snowfall occurrences jump to around 50%. With the cold air expected through next week that certainly increases the likelihood of snow on the ground on Christmas.
Precipitation is a bit more difficult to pinpoint this far out. Historically since 1981 Dayton has been dry on Christmas Day 63% of the time.
The most recent Climate Prediction Center has us at near normal for precipitation around Christmas, but a Christmas miracle could be in order.
The biggest snow event Dayton has recorded on Christmas was in 2004 with 16 inches of powder on the ground.