Tropical system may develop in the Gulf this week

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A weather system currently producing rain showers over Georgia could develop into a tropical weather system later this week according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC).

Over the next few days, this low pressure system is expected to track southeast into the Gulf of Mexico where it will be able to interact with extremely warm ocean water, potentially allowing it to strengthen.

Current sea surface temperatures. Off the Florida coast, the water is over 88 degrees.

NHC meteorologists note that, even if an organized tropical system fails to form, areas along the Gulf coast could still experience very heavy rainfall. Up to 10 inches of rain may fall in some spots by the beginning of next week with much of the coast seeing at least a few inches of rain.

Forecast precipitation accumulation through Saturday afternoon (GFS model)

The actual track of the potential storm is still uncertain with the two major weather models differing in both track and intensity.

The European Model (Euro) shows an organized tropical storm making landfall in Louisiana with the heaviest rain falling in that state. On the other hand, the American Model (GFS) indicates a less organized system making its way farther west towards Texas heading into the weekend.

If this system does form into a tropical storm, it would be the second storm of the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season and would be named Barry. The first storm, Subtropical Storm Andrea, formed in mid May but remained well away from the US mainland.

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