So far this season, we have seen only 0.30″ of snowfall. That is more than five inches below normal. We’ve had plenty of rain, however, with a total of 5.65″ since December 1st, which is a surplus of 2.25″. It’s just been too warm for the precipitation to be wintry. But that is about to change!

A cold front will move into the Miami Valley on Wednesday. We will notice more clouds around, and stronger wind. It looks like the front will pass through dry, but will bring in something we definitely need in order to get snow: cold air. Temperatures will top out in the upper 30s through early afternoon Wednesday, and then it will be turning colder for the mid-late afternoon hours.

Overnight lows bottom out in the teens, and Thursday will be a very cold day, with highs just reaching the low 20s. So as a storm passes south of the Miami Valley, it is definitely cold enough to get accumulating snow.

Many of the models have been consistently bringing at least some snow to the Miami Valley on Thursday. However, it’s not a done deal, as the strength and track of the storm are still in question. The main energy of this storm hasn’t even made it over land yet. That will happen on Wednesday, and then we will get a better idea for how it will play out.

This is the European Model forecast for 7pm Thursday, January 6th, 2022. The strength and position of the Low will determine where the heaviest snow falls.

Snow is forecast to begin in the afternoon hours of Thursday and will continue into the evening. This could impact the drive home from work. Right now, it looks like the southern or southeastern half of the Miami Valley will have the best chance of at least seeing an inch of snow… possibly more. A good first estimate would be a couple inches are possible for portions of Preble, Montgomery, Greene, Clark, Butler, Warren and Clinton counties. The northern counites have a lower chance to see an inch or more, but could still see some light accumulation.

As of Tuesday, models are forecasting a bullseye of heavy snow from Central Kentucky into West Virginia. This is valid Thursday/Thursday night.

Do not let this be the last forecast you see! When winter storms are forecast, it is important to stay up-to-date on weather information, as it can change daily. Check back with us on the latest thinking as we get closer to Thursday. A great way to do that is to download the Storm Team 2 Weather app. It’s not like a national app, where a computer is doing the updating. Our app is updated by our staff of local meteorologists, several times a day. You can download it here: STORM TEAM 2 WEATHER APP

With snow expected to be on the ground Friday morning, and at least partial clearing, temperatures will drop down near 10-degrees. With a breeze, our wind chill (or feels-like temperature) will drop below zero. Afternoon highs will again only reach the low 20s. Thankfully, it will warm up a good deal over the upcoming weekend, with highs expected to rebound into the 40s. It will be warm enough for rain by Sunday.