December snow outlook during a La Nina winter

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DAYTON, Ohio (WDTN) – La Nina is expected to continue through Winter. This means Ohio tends to see a lot of temperature swings and above-normal precipitation.

Those temperature swings complicate the snow forecast. Since 1950 there is a 52 percent chance of above-normal snowfall during a La Nina December.

We see the best chance of December snowfall during an ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) Neutral year. Below normal snow is more likely during an El Nino December.

We have seen a white Christmas 19 years since 1950. Only four came during a La Nina December. Again, an ENSO Neutral year provided a better chance for snow on the ground on December 25. That chance is still just 38% during an ENSO Neutral year.

Since 1893 we’ve had 70 years with no snow on Christmas. 26 years provided a trace of snow. Overall your chance of measurable snow on Christmas Day is just 23%.

During a La Nina December, the chance of a White Christmas is just 19%.

The Climate Prediction Center outlook gives Ohio a greater chance of above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation. Two outlooks you don’t want to see if you are hoping for a white Christmas.

See the latest Storm Team 2 Forecast here.

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