DAYTON, Ohio (WDTN) – The spring outlook from the Climate Prediction Center has a greater chance for above-normal temperatures in the Miami Valley and much of the United States.
Only the far northwest corner of the United States has a greater chance for below normal temperatures the next three months.
Sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean at the Equator are still below normal. La Nina is still present, however the Climate Prediction Center is forecasting a transition to ENSO-Neutral through spring.
Five previous years include La Nina conditions in March and Neutral temperatures by May. Those years are 1996, 2006, 2009, 2012, and 2018.
Four of those years recorded an average seasonal temperature about normal or above normal. In 1996 the seasonal average was about 4 degrees below normal.
Only 1996, 2006, and 2018 recorded above-normal precipitation for the season.
Right now the Climate Prediction Center keeps Dayton and much of the Midwest under a greater chance for above-normal precipitation.
Rainfall, like temperatures, tends to increase over the next three months.
We tend to see 3.34 inches of rain in March and 4.66 inches in May.
The average high temperature climbs about 10 degrees each month.
As temperatures warm severe weather becomes more likely.
Notice the tornado trend climbs a lot between March and May.
During the month of May, the Miami Valley has seen 78 tornadoes since 1950. The region has gone without a May tornado for just seven of the last 20 years.
In the recent transitions from La Nino to ENSO-Neutral during spring. At least one tornado was recorded in May.
March is a month many states use to prepare for the severe weather season ahead.
Severe Weather Awareness week is March 21-27 in Ohio. The state wide tornado drill is March 24 at 9:50 a.m.