Editor’s note: This story has been updated to reflect that J.D. Vance’s higher polling percentage against Tim Ryan is within Cygnal’s margin of error.
COLUMBUS, Ohio (WCMH) — One of the two U.S. Senate candidates for Ohio has a slight edge over his opponent, according to the latest poll.
In a survey of nearly 1,500 likely voters in Ohio from Oct. 14 to 18, Republican venture capitalist J.D. Vance led his Democratic opponent U.S. Rep. Tim Ryan 47.3% to 43.2% — a gap that continues to fall within the poll’s margin of error, mirroring the majority of independent polling that has placed the two candidates in a statistical dead heat. To break the margin of error and emerge as the poll’s frontrunner, Vance would need at least 48.36% of the vote.
The Cygnal poll, which comes on the heels of two, hour-long debates between Vance and Ryan, also found that incumbent Republican Gov. Mike DeWine maintains a healthy lead over his Democratic opponent, former Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley.
A slight majority, or 45%, of respondents in the Cygnal poll said they identify as Republican. About 34.2% identified as Democrat, and 19.4% as unaffiliated with a political party. The remaining 1.4% of participants were unsure.
Vance pulls slightly ahead in U.S. Senate race
With two debates under candidates’ belts in the U.S. Senate race, both Vance and Ryan continue to pick up additional support from voters.
| Pollster | FiveThirtyEight Score | Date Conducted | Vance (R) | Ryan (D) | Net Result | Within margin of error? |
| Cygnal | B+ | Oct. 14-18 | 47.3% | 43.2% | Vance +4.1% | Yes (+/- 2.58%) |
| Lucid | B- | Oct. 11-15 | 41% | 43% | Ryan +2% | Yes (+/- 3.8%) |
| Suffolk University | B+ | Oct. 11-15 | 47% | 45% | Vance +2 | Yes (+/- 4.4%) |
| Emerson College | A- | Oct. 6-7 | 46% | 45% | Vance +1 | Yes (+/- 3%) |
| Cygnal | B+ | Oct. 6-8 | 46% | 44% | Vance +2 | |
| Siena College | A | Sept. 18-22 | 43% | 46% | Ryan +3 | Yes (+/- 4.4%) |
| Baldwin Wallace University | B/C | Sept. 12-15 | 45% | 48% | Ryan +3 | Yes (+/- 4.1%) |
| Marist College | A | Sept. 12-13 | 46% | 45% | Vance +1 | Yes (+/- 3.6%) |
| Emerson College | A- | Sept. 12-13 | 44% | 40% | Vance +4 | No (+/- 3.2%) |
| Civiqs | B- | Sept. 10-13 | 48% | 45% | Vance +3 | Yes (+/- 4%) |
| Suffolk University | B+ | Sept. 5-7 | 46% | 47% | Ryan +1 | Yes (+/- 4.4%) |
| Echelon Insights | B/C | Aug. 31-Sept. 7 | 39% | 45% | Ryan +6 | No (+/- 4.3%) |
| Emerson College | A- | Aug. 15-16 | 45% | 42% | Vance +3 | Yes (+/- 3.2) |
| Suffolk University | B+ | May 22-24 | 42% | 39% | Vance +2 | Yes (+/- 4.4%) |
DeWine keeps double-digit lead in Ohio governor race
Likely voters in Ohio continue to overwhelmingly favor DeWine over Whaley when it comes to the Buckeye State's next leader.
As DeWine maintains a healthy lead, so do Republicans running for statewide office under him -- including in the secretary of state and attorney general races.
Incumbent Secretary of State Frank LaRose, a Republican elected in 2018, is leading his two opponents -- Democrat Chelsea Clark and Independent candidate Terpsehore "Tore" Maras -- with 48.9% of the vote, compared to Clark's 33.1% and Maras' 4.3%, according to the Cygnal poll.
Respondents also favored Incumbent Attorney General Dave Yost, a Republican elected in 2018 after an eight-year term as state auditor, over his challenger, state Rep. Jeffrey Crossman (D-Parma), with 52.4% to 35.5% of the vote.
| Pollster | FiveThirtyEight Score | Date Conducted | DeWine (R) | Whaley (D) | Net Result | Within margin of error? |
| Cygnal | B+ | Oct. 14-18 | 56.3% | 35.2% | DeWine +21.1% | No (+/- 2.58%) |
| Lucid | B- | Oct. 11-15 | 60% | 29% | DeWine +31% | No (+/- 3.8%) |
| Suffolk University | B+ | Oct. 11-15 | 56% | 38% | DeWine +17% | No (+/- 4.4%) |
| Emerson College | A- | Oct. 6-7 | 50% | 36% | DeWine +14 | No (+/- 3%) |
| Cygnal | B+ | Oct. 6-8 | 57% | 35% | DeWine +22 | |
| Siena College | A | Sept. 18-22 | 55% | 32% | DeWine +23 | No (+/- 4.4%) |
| Baldwin Wallace University | B/C | Sept. 12-15 | 49% | 33% | DeWine +16 | No (+/- 4.1%) |
| Marist College | A | Sept. 12-13 | 50% | 33% | DeWine +18 | No (+/- 3.6%) |
| Emerson College | A- | Sept. 12-13 | 49% | 33% | DeWine +17 | No (+/- 3.2%) |
| Civiqs | B- | Sept. 10-13 | 44% | 41% | DeWine +3 | Yes (+/- 4%) |
| Suffolk University | B+ | Sept. 5-7 | 54% | 39% | DeWine +15 | No (+/- 4.4%) |
| Echelon Insights | B/C | Aug. 31-Sept. 7 | 54% | 35% | DeWine +19 | No (+/- 4.3%) |
| Emerson College | A- | Aug. 15-16 | 49% | 33% | DeWine +16 | No (+/- 3.2) |
| Suffolk University | B+ | May 22-24 | 45% | 30% | DeWine +16 | No (+/- 4.4%) |
Inflation, abortion remain top issues among Ohio voters
Mirroring previous independent polling conducted after the May primary election, participants in the Cygnal poll ranked inflation and abortion as their No. 1 and 2 issues, respectively, that will influence their decisions at the ballot box in November.
