The video above is the Sunday, Oct. 30 episode of NBC4’s political show “The Spectrum with Colleen Marshall.”
COLUMBUS, Ohio (WCMH) – While the needle has barely budged in Ohio’s U.S. Senate race, the latest polling suggests a landslide in the gubernatorial contest.
Conducted from Wednesday to Saturday, a Cygnal survey of 1,510 likely voters in Ohio found Republican J.D. Vance with 48.2% of the vote compared with Democrat Tim Ryan’s 43.7% – a gap that falls within the poll’s margin of error of 2.52%, dubbing the race a statistical dead heat.
Ohioans continue to rally behind incumbent Republican Gov. Mike DeWine, who took a 20-point lead over his Democratic challenger, former Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley.
Vance, Ryan continue to be neck-and-neck
Though the race to replace retiring Sen. Rob Portman remains virtually tied, Vance continued to pick up support from a few more Ohio survey respondents than his Democratic opponent. About 8% of voters remain undecided, Cygnal found.
Noah Rudnick, a Cygnal data scientist who fielded the poll, said in a news release that independent voters are “really up for grabs” when it comes to Ohio’s U.S. Senate race, as about 20% of independents who have yet to vote also remain undecided.
“This group is not enthusiastic about voting, and most of them say they are undecided on the generic ballot so it is hard to know how they will break,” Rudnick said.
|Pollster||FiveThirtyEight Score||Date Conducted||Vance (R)||Ryan (D)||Net Result||Within margin of error?|
|Cygnal||B+||Oct. 26-30||48.2%||43.7%||Vance +4.5||Yes (+/-2.52%)|
|Cygnal||B+||Oct. 22-26||49%||44%||Vance +5||No (+/- 2.3%)|
|Baldwin Wallace University||B/C||Oct. 20-23||46%||50%||Ryan +4||Yes (+/- 3.5%)|
|Cygnal||B+||Oct. 20-24||48%||44%||Vance +4||Yes (+/- 2.26%)|
|Marist College||A||Oct. 17-20||46%||45%||Vance +1||Yes (+/- 3.9%)|
|Siena College||A||Oct. 14-19||46%||46%||Tie +0||Yes (+/- 5.1%)|
|Cygnal||B+||Oct. 14-18||47%||43%||Vance +4||Yes (+/- 2.58%)|
|Lucid||B-||Oct. 11-15||41%||43%||Ryan +2||Yes (+/- 3.8%)|
|Suffolk University||B+||Oct. 11-15||47%||45%||Vance +2||Yes (+/- 4.4%)|
|Emerson College||A-||Oct. 6-7||46%||45%||Vance +1||Yes (+/- 3%)|
|Cygnal||B+||Oct. 6-8||46%||44%||Vance +2|
|Siena College||A||Sept. 18-22||43%||46%||Ryan +3||Yes (+/- 4.4%)|
|Baldwin Wallace University||B/C||Sept. 12-15||45%||48%||Ryan +3||Yes (+/- 4.1%)|
|Marist College||A||Sept. 12-13||46%||45%||Vance +1||Yes (+/- 3.6%)|
|Emerson College||A-||Sept. 12-13||44%||40%||Vance +4||No (+/- 3.2%)|
|Civiqs||B-||Sept. 10-13||48%||45%||Vance +3||Yes (+/- 4%)|
|Suffolk University||B+||Sept. 5-7||46%||47%||Ryan +1||Yes (+/- 4.4%)|
|Echelon Insights||B/C||Aug. 31-Sept. 7||39%||45%||Ryan +6||No (+/- 4.3%)|
|Emerson College||A-||Aug. 15-16||45%||42%||Vance +3||Yes (+/- 3.2)|
|Suffolk University||B+||May 22-24||42%||39%||Vance +2||Yes (+/- 4.4%)|
Polls predict GOP landslide in gubernatorial race
Ohioans are split down the middle when it comes to selecting a new senator, but one thing remains clear: DeWine, first elected to the role in 2018, is overwhelmingly favored to return to office.
With 56% of the vote compared with Whaley’s 35.5%, DeWine continues to maintain his double-digit lead. The Republican is “running well ahead of Trump’s numbers” in 2020, Rudnick said, even garnering 16 more points than Vance.
“This is powered by a broad coalition with an iron grip on Republicans, a majority of Independents, and double-digit support with Democrats, even among those who have voted,” Rudnick said.
Inflation, abortion are top issues among Ohioans
Like the majority of independent polling in Ohio, economic issues remain the No. 1 concern driving voters to the ballot box.
Nearly 35% of Cygnal poll respondents placed inflation and the cost of living at the top of their issues list, followed by nearly 20% emphasizing abortion and 13% listing jobs and the economy.