Summer outlook, chance for above-normal heat and rain


High temperatures on Monday and Tuesday were warmer than the average hottest week in the summer for the Miami Valley.

The average high in Dayton is 84.1 degrees July 9-July 14. After that average temperatures slowly start to drop into Winter.

The hottest record high in Dayton was July 22, 1901.

The Climate Prediction Center is forecasting a low chance for above normal temperatures and above normal rainfall for the Miami Valley through August.

This is based on where long range models agree. Ocean sea surface temperatures play a role in seasonal outlooks as well. The El Nino Southern Oscillation is based on these temperatures along the equator in the Pacific Ocean.

Right now Temperatures are neutral, but a trend toward cooler temperatures is leading to a greater chance for La Nina by winter. This combined with warmer sea surface temperatures along the Atlantic Coast, throughout the Gulf tends to result in more tropical activity during the summer. NOAA is forecasting an above-normal hurricane season.

This could lead to more moisture being brought up into Ohio.

Dayton tends to see the most rain in May with a monthly average of 4.66 inches. The early summer months tend to be wet with an average of 4.17 inches of rain on June and 4.11 inches in July. The monthly average rainfall drops to 2.99 inches in August.

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