La Nina Watch for fall and winter

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Below normal surface temperatures have been recorded in the equatorial region of the Pacific Ocean for the last three months.

According to the Climate Prediction Center, sea surface temperatures are still ENSO-neutral at -0.2 degrees Celsius below normal in the Nino3.4 region.

La Nina is when the SST anomaly drops to -0.5 degrees Celsius. Models are favoring La Nina into the Winter with a 60% chance of development this fall.

ENSO stands for El Nino/ Southern Oscillation. The ocean pattern impacts seasonal weather in the Miami Valley and across the globe.

La Nina means Pacific Ocean temperatures at the surface near the equator are cooler than normal. The easterly winds are stronger than normal along the equator.

A La Nina winter in the Miami Valley typically means warmer and wetter winters. However, the polar jet stream tends to be more variable resulting in big temperature swings.

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