There is a marginal risk for severe weather tonight and tomorrow. The biggest risk will be flash flooding with several rounds of rain Monday morning through Tuesday night.
Rainfall totals will be 2-3 inches by Tuesday night with a few rain showers continuing into Wednesday morning.
Monday and Tuesday look very wet. There will be several periods of heavy rain with embedded thunderstorms.
There is a low risk for higher wind gusts within the storms. There is a risk for severe weather tonight 10:30 p.m. Sunday night and 2 a.m. Monday morning. The models indicate there will be some weakening and the storms may break up before they make it to the Miami Valley. Right now the line looks stronger than the way the models are initiating.
The next chance for severe weather will be as the cold front approaches late Monday morning. Strong wind gusts will be the biggest risk as well as flooding. This will continue into Monday night. Skies will be cloudy which should limit severe storms.
The low will slowly take a southeast movement into Tuesday evening. This will keep rain in the region through Tuesday night. By Wednesday the low will begin to move far enough south that will will begin to see less rain.