February forecast, greater chance for below-normal temperatures


DAYTON, Ohio (WDTN) – Average temperatures in Dayton have a greater chance to be below 31.1 degrees in February according to the the Climate Prediction Center.

Ohio has an equal chance for above or below normal precipitation during the upcoming month.

  • Climate normals for February include
  • 5.9 inches of snow
  • 2.24 inches of precipitation
  • 39 degree high temperature average
  • 23.2 degree low temperature average
  • 31.1 degree average temperature

Nov. 2019 was the last time the average monthly temperature was below normal.

January is set to end above normal. As of Jan 20, the average monthly temperature is 11.3 degrees above normal. The highest temperature was 67 degrees on Jan. 11. The coldest temperature, 13 degrees recorded yesterday, Jan 19.

To predict the climate outlook for the month ahead the Climate Prediction Center looks at known patterns in the atmosphere and oceans.

The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is referenced often. Today the Climate Prediction Center released the forecast for ENSO neutral conditions through the spring.

A typical neutral pattern during the winter includes abundant rainfall for the Ohio Valley and colder temperatures for the Midwest and the Northeast.

Other patterns also play a role such as the Madden-Julian Oscillation, Pacific Meridional Mode, South Pacific Oscillation, and Kelvin Wave. They also compare the data to historical records.

The last ENSO neutral winter resulted in an above-normal January and February for Dayton. This year could be similar to 1967. There was an El Nino Winter the year before. Jan. 1967 was above normal and February was below normal.

Tuesday will be the last below normal high temperature this week. Above normal highs are expected to start the month of February. Find the latest Storm Team 2 Forecast here.

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