Above normal temperatures likely into spring


Above normal temperatures are expected to continue into the spring according to the Climate Prediction Center.

The normal high for Dayton ranges from 49.6 degrees in March to 71.5 degrees in May. Low temperatures range from 31.2 degrees to 51.4 degrees as spring comes to an end.

So far average temperatures for Jan. and Feb. have been above normal.

The dominating weather pattern has been an area of high pressure across the southeast with low-pressure systems digging south into the plains and tracking northeast into Ohio. This weather pattern brings abundant rain to the area.

Weather Pattern during much of Feb.

At the end of the month, it looks like we will see a flip in the pattern. High pressure will develop to the west with a low-pressure trough bringing colder air into Ohio.

Weather Pattern heading into March lead to colder and drier air

Matt Rosencrans is a Meteorologist with NOAA Climate Prediction Center. He said sea surface temperatures in the equatorial region of the Pacific Ocean still hints at a neutral pattern, neither El Nino or La Nina will be present in the Spring.

However, Rosencrans said there are intraseasonal conditions that will influence March keeping a pattern where high pressure dominates the western United States.

“It’s currently forecast,” Rosencrans said, “especially the first week of March could be quite chilly into the southeast.”  

This pattern will bring more below-normal temperatures during the March, and below-normal precipitation for the Miami Valley.

March Temperature Outlook is below normal for the Miami Valley
March Precip Outlook is below normal for the Miami Valley

“It will be a dry March in the Great Lakes, but we are forecasting a good return of moisture in April and May,” Rosencrans said.

The lack of winter has resulted in little ice accumulation on the Great Lakes this season.

A meteorologist at the NOAA Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, Eric Anderson said Jan. resulted in record-breaking water levels and ice cover.

“Currently water levels continue to be high for all five great lakes, either at the record highest for Jan. or just below the record,” Anderson said.

Lake Superior and Michigan-Huron broke the Jan. records. Lake Erie was 2 inches below the record and Lake Ontario was 4 inches below.

For the entire year of 2019 Anderson said Lake Erie reached it’s the highest water level of all time. In Jan. he said Lake Erie has seen its lowest maximum ice coverage on record.

“All the other Great Lakes saw low ice in Jan. as well,” Anderson said.

2019 was the wettest year on record. Anderson said above-average temperatures and precipitation in Jan has kept water levels high.

“Typically, this is the time of year when water levels decline in the Great Lakes,” Anderson said, “but we didn’t see that happen this year.”

Anderson said the region has experienced hundreds of millions of dollars in damages.

“The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers forecasts have predicted that lake levels will not drop significantly any time soon,” Anderson said. “In fact, over the next six months, all of the lakes except Lake Ontario are forecast to set new record high monthly water levels in at least one of those months.”

The region sees the most rain from April – July. Rosencrans said The Climate Prediction Center is forecasting above-normal temperatures for much of the region for the Spring.

There is a chance for above-normal precipitation through the Spring as well. Even though the March will be off to a cooler and drier start in March.


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