Peak coronavirus numbers now lower than originally predicted, models show

Five on 2

DAYTON, Ohio (WDTN) – Wednesday, the state health department referenced a shift in modeling that now shows the potential for 1,600 new coronavirus cases per day at its peak. This is a drastic change from the original 10,000 new cases per day originally predicted.

Dr. Roberto Colon with Miami Valley Hospital joined 2 NEWS Wednesday to discuss. He says the effectiveness of social distancing efforts and the number of people being tested has both factor into these new projections.

“The number of tests has allowed us to be able to get more accurate data that allowed us to really be able to track things a little more effectively. We can see with a more accurate model of what the new cases are, but what this really reflects is how many unknowns there were going into this disease early on. A lot of the modeling is best guess estimates based on what we know,” he said.

Dr. Colon says that while hospitals have been able to test those patients who certainly need it, maintaining a level of testing those in the community who feel they could be a carrier has been difficult.

“The hope has always been that as more laboratory sites come online we’ll be able to offload some of that. We’ve seen a little bit of that as more hospitals are able to get that in-site testing within the facility, but for the community at-large, they still don’t have the ability to access all of those tests every day,” he said.

He adds that although the predicted numbers for future cases is showing much lower, there is a fear that people may stop their social distancing practices and create a second wave of illnesses.

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